Both India and Russia count each
others’ Ministers as close friends. Alas! Ministers are not nations, people
are. Indo-Russian partnership is a fallacy, we are oblivious about. I lived &
worked in Russia as a technopreneur. I feel anguished at the imminent but mirage-like
dawn in Indo-Russian business. My outburst is aimed at amelioration.
Following unknown pregnancy of Soviet Union with
separatism, Russia was born. India really did not know how to react to it for a
very long time. And we didn’t. Soviet-era-India played balancing act, committing
to none, oozing people to west & policies to East. We played smart. Today,
those who migrated to west are CXOs, doctors, senators, governors, congressmen,
Minister of Defense in Canada, and Ministers in various smaller nations; we are
everywhere. Indian émigré veritably contributes, is harmless, works to make their
lives better; commingles like cut diamonds in water bottle – invisible, but
there - intact in thought & identity. Traditionally, India cherished
philosophical identities, not political or religious. So Indian émigré is welcomed
everywhere owing to its apolitical nature.
Abstaining from discussion on social differences - abound,
there is a critical tactical difference - India never goes an inch beyond the
median, Russia inherently keels to the extremes. Another critical difference is that India first studies, then debates, then understands (thoroughly) and only then explores (many times we do get into 'paralysis of analysis'). West on the contrary first explores, then studies and then understands. Another example of psycho-cultural disparities amongst India and Russia - just 3-4 years
ago, economics with India was nowhere on the Russian priority. But now after
western sanctions suddenly, Russian elite, at the St. Petersburg International
Economic Summit proposed to dump US Dollar and trade in Rupees & Rubles.
Great idea, but too far-pendulating for Indian psyche. Coercive circumstances
emanate fire-fighting measures, not strategies.
Earning and gathering is cumbersome, dividing easy. In a
flash, socialist Russians became capitalists – State ‘divided’ resources
amongst the smart & brave few, who ensured sustenance of the State. Russia
changed by hours in 90s. I bet no Indian Minister, who came to Russia, ever had
even a whiff of what was happening in Russia & to the relationship of
Russia to India. They parroted oft quoted lines from 70s. Indian slow-sculpting
mind failed to understand roller-coasting Russia. In 90s we were like
passengers standing on a platform, while Russia was a moving train. We didn’t
have gumption to jump onto a moving train. Russians too felt no need - their
destination was Frankfurt, Paris & New York, not Delhi.
Indian Government after making whatsoever
bids, has caved in to inability of fast growth in Indo-Russian business, for
reasons they don’t understand. They shifted focus to Government business. Expect
spurt in Indian investments in energy, besides continuation of arms purchase to
keep our Russian partners in good humour. India-Russia business in contrast to
US-India business has no visionaries, neither in Government nor in think-tanks
nor in business.
21st century India harbours
ambitions, sensible ambitions are followed by deep thought, and finally a
vision is birthed. I am sure India does not want Russia to fall completely on
the Chinese side in the great game of 21st century. India and China
will be equally strong heavy weights. US will incline towards India till the
point India and China acquire equilibrium (without Chinese upheavals 2035, with
2030). Europe seems not to matter much. In the 2035-2050 theatre there will be
two seesaws Russia-US & China-India; fulcrum of later resting on former,
change of balance in one will impact the balance. Complicated but highly
probable.
What ahead?
After years of bonhomie, Russia started realizing that
America, which owns the Global-Playstation is not giving it enough access to
the playing console. Naïve Russia got off the seesaw (which Chinese quickly
occupied) and stood behind the seesawing Americans, waiting for its chance to
ride. It waited long. It’s still waiting. Consequently, the honeymoon seems over.
In the meanwhile, India is braver, more important, more
powerful, impossible to be ignored, still benign, slightly more innovative,
slightly less riskophobic, stronger on feet, less timid, more audacious, better
developed, more international, smarter, having access and reputation in America
and west at large; while Russia is more capable, speaking better economesian
(the language of business), and is an awakened child of pragmatism, while being
at logger-heads with west. This opportunity for Russia and India is not a
visionary or strategic outcome, but a geopolitical serendipity. Loosing this
opportunity will mean we aren’t just goofy, we work hard to be one.
Russia is planning major efforts in agriculture, I say,
provide 15 year gratis lease to Indian agriculturists of bigger sized land, as
4 hectares will not attract any respectable agriculturist in India. Not only
will they grow enough crops, work-hard and supply within Russia, they will earn
much needed hard currency for Russia by selling in Japan and south-east Asia.
Investing in English-speaking India will be dearer to
Russian elite than in authoritative China, over which Russia has no checks or controls. Furthermore, Russians are more
intrepid, they should enter the Indian market with investment, products and
services. China and India are sooner than later going to grow into the second
and third biggest markets, though China is ageing and India is becoming more and more youthful with 65% of Indian population being less than 35 years of age in 2025. Add to these conditions the fact that US and Russia
will be at loggerheads for very long, because what divides them is Crimea. Powerful
nations and big leaders can chew anything, but their pride.
One or two years will not change the Indo-Russian
balance-sheets, why not to then focus on the long run - science &
technology. Scientists and technologists will be the academic & intellectual
cement of future. Indian Corporates should aggressively invest in R&D
operations in Russia, attracting local talent. Would I be the decision-maker
for either of the Governments, I would have an R&D facilitation team
headquartered in Moscow with offices in St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk and Tomsk.
It should be a team of Indian and Russian technopreneurs and scientists with
understanding of the Russian Science & Indian Industry. Ideally, I would
get a ‘for-profit’ venture to provide this service. With complete reverence to
the diplomats in Embassies or Academicians employed as Science and Technology
Counselors, their ineffectiveness in highly dynamic technology sector, owing to
public accountability requirements is to be conceded.
Russia, on the other hand could assist by providing
access and incentives to the Indian companies setting R&D centres in Russia. Provide them the psychological comfort of living in an enclave, where
they will not be touched by local Chinovnikis (authorities). When large Indian
corporates and start-ups begin discovering in Russia, they will also tend to
produce in Russia, especially for sales to Europe. This is the long-term
strategic plan. Would we get enough Agronomes & Corporates in India & Russia to take the plunge? I
believe ‘yes’. But lets explore, then study and then understand & avoid the paralysis of analysis.
Deepak Loomba
