Two-Nation Theory & Kashmir – An analytical approach

Since Bhutto, Pakistan has seen exponential progress in the scale of irrationality of its rulers. It is easy to prove. Analysis makes every previous ruler seems more balanced than the one under consideration.

I have no qualms vis-à-vis Imran Khan, he seems to be a harmless man in a wrong job, at a wrong time. Pakistan establishment (Army + ISI) is discrediting Paki politics.

I have spend good two years watching Pakistan TV shows, listening to their intellectuals and Jihadis alike with a purpose of understanding the country & its psyche. My conclusions are no different from those of Hussain Haqqani (Erstwhile Ambassador of Pakistan to US, currently persona non-grata in Pakistan) or Tarek Fateh or Tahir Gora (Tag TV of Canada). The only difference it has made for me is - I better understand why do they say, whatsoever they do. They may have difference in styles of expression, but take the emotional foil off the confetti, the content is largely alike. They concur in analysis, though they differ in their to-do-list.

Two-Nation Theory meant that in a democracy, the majority, which in India would have been of Hindus, is bound to subjugate the minorities that would have been Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Jews, Parsees etc. In short the fathers of Pakistan – M. A. Jinnah and before him famous poet Iqbal were confused between nation states and theocracies.

So be it. Nations, like people, who manage them are irrational entities. Pakistan can move on, but it doesn't. The challenge facing Pakistan is - an identity crisis. They are in what Rolf Dobelli (in his book 'The Art of Thinking Clearly') termed, the ‘Sunk Cost Fallacy’. It’s like an addicted gambler’s tendency to bid more on loosing hands one after other with a false conviction that his chances of victory next time are more profound. Pakistan for reasons psychological, political and military is not ready to bid adieu to two-nation theory, which stuttered through its very inception, but is now mute and dumb. Yet, my friends in Pakistan are flogging a dead horse.

Pakistan is born from the womb of fear and hence generations have spent their lives awaiting affirmation or negation of Two-Nation Theory. Pakistan, unfortunately has a losing hand either way. An affirmation of two-nation theory means that Pakistan, having been aggregated from diverse ethnic and cultural minorities, is unsustainable. A negation would mean that Pakistan was unsustainable ab-initio.

By the swath of territory and people Two-Nation Theory impacts, its stature and study is pretty dwarfed. Communism at its peak impacted less than ½ billion lives. Two-Nation theory influences life of a population three to four times more. Current paper is an analytical approach to two-nation theory through analysis of all possible cases that could have existed in undivided India. The method used is unique and systematic.

The Two Nation Theory

Vis-à-vis most nations, which are created through establishment of political, politico-economic, ethnic, linguistic, historical constraints, Pakistan is probably the only big nation created by religious constraints. Two-Nation theory postulated that Muslims are a separate nation that will not or cannot live in a democratically elected secular society, in which there is a non-muslim majority. A majority which could (as was Iqbal’s & Jinnah’s suspicion) theoretically exert hegemony on Muslim minority.

False simplification has it that there were two camps pre-Independence – Maulana Azad our great leader and first education Minister, was from the secular India camp – wanted an undivided united democratic India. M. A. Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan, having being ousted in Congress (the predominant political party) by younger and more agile Jawahar Lal Nehru was in the two-nation camp to which he subsequently pushed Nehru as well. Albeit, with different reasons and differing gusto.

These might be simplistic and clear options for the elite. Nevertheless, for the masses, this is oversimplification. “History is written in black on white. Written history guts shades, narrated – accuracy”. This over-simplification of history is rooted in the fallacy that draws focus on the leaders of the two sparring camps. People treated as petty constants are largely left out of the equation in which leaders are the only major variables of consequence and concern. Let’s for a moment omit leaders from the 1946-1947 India. Since the demand for a separate nation was that of Muslims, let’s examine all possibilities amongst Muslims of undivided India. There apparently would have been much more than two camps. Simple analysis shows the following forums for those Muslims, who live or lived in currently Indian territories of undivided India. They had largest possibilities and hardest choices to make. Let’s denote this category as ‘MII’ (stands for Muslims in India). The other Category would be Non-Muslims who lived in current Pakistan of undivided India. Let’s denote this category as ‘NMP’. The only other possible category was that of Muslims in current Pakistan. Let’s denote this category as ‘MIP’. Hindus in India expended emotionally but socio-economically, they were unharmed.

Plain vanilla analysis shows that categories of people with varying views on partition of India were much more than oft-quoted two. It is important to mention that the classification of people as described below relegates strictly to those who are from the generation that saw partition. This analysis is not directly applicable to those born after Independence or in 70s or 80s and later. Generally, the later generations only get an indirect camp influence through those, who actually survived partition. Nevertheless, the categorization possibilities are presented below:

'2NT' stands for belief in two-nation theory; 'Cat' for category; 'PMM' means Possessed Means to Migrate (to Pakistan from India or vice-versa);  'MIG' means Migrated (to Pakistan from India or vice-versa); 'NA' stands for Not Applicable.

SN	Comment Defines class of people and their possible view
1	CAT - MII;   2NT - Yes;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - Yes This is the category of affluent Muslims of India, many of whom went and controlled Pakistan. Taking along and forcing Urdu over Pakistan probably because it was written in Arabic script. Ethno-culturally, what they did to local communities of Pakistan is no less than a cultural invasion. A language imported from India (Urdu) which was not popular among masses was declared the official language of Pakistan, while the local languages were literally suppressed.
2	CAT - MII;   2NT - Yes;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - No These can be termed as those who remained compassionate towards Pakistan within India. The class of people, whom orthodox Hindu people disliked & constantly questioned their patriotism. These were either very pragmatic class of Muslims or just slothful ones (it is not a community attribute, there are more slothful Hindus!)
3	CAT - MII;   2NT - Yes;   PMM - No;   MIG - No These are poor Muslims, who were easy to tutor by leaders like Jinnah. They believed in the Muslims being a separate nation, but did not have the means to migrate. These too probably lived with empathy towards Pakistan, but I would believe that such people are easily molded and would change their stance, pragmatically, if/when convinced.
4	CAT - MII;   2NT - Yes;   PMM - No;   MIG - Yes These were those Muslims, who believed in two-nation theory, and were forced out of India owing to mayhem that followed partition. Sorry for them. They were poor when in India and remained poor post-migration.
5	CAT - MII;   2NT - No;   PMM - No;   MIG - No These were poor Muslims who followed leaders like Maulana Azad. And stuck to India, because their leader asked them to. Some of them would have had love of their motherland, belief and conviction that they can co-exist with Non-Muslims.
6	CAT - MII;   2NT - No;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - Yes These were above average people or well-heeled people, especially in Indian Punjab, who were uprooted in the mayhem that followed partition and had to migrate for fear of their lives.
7	CAT - MII;   2NT - No;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - No These were above average Muslims, who were educated, knew what was happening in Europe and America post WW-II & believed in Secular values.
8	CAT - MII;   2NT - No;   PMM - No;   MIG - Yes These were the worst, who were hit by riots and uprooted from India. They were forced by circumstances to migrate, though they did not want and had no means, and probably many of their generations are destitute & still struggling in Pakistan.
9	CAT - MIP;   2NT - Yes;   PMM - NA;   MIG - NA This is an apparent class of people, who lived in Pakistan and favoured to separate from India. Interestingly, there is little evidence of this class being in majority as the Muslim League, proponent of two-nation theory had lost elections in this area in the years preceding independence.
10	CAT - MIP;   2NT - No;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - Yes We seem to ignore this class but in reality there are many cases where Muslims migrated to India, partly because their most relatives were here and because they did not believe in two-nation theory.
11	CAT - MIP;   2NT - No;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - Yes This class is there in Pakistan, though muted, who were well to do, did not believe in two nation theory, but went along with the flow, with little options for themselves. This is a substantial class in Pakistan, including A. G. Khan (Frontier Gandhi) & his followers.
12	CAT - MIP;   2NT - No;   PMM - No;   MIG - Yes Small though, but must have been there. Who believed in secularism and India or just shifted to India because of relatives here.
13	CAT - MIP;   2NT - No;   PMM - No;   MIG - No These are poor followers of leaders like Frontier Gandhi.
14	CAT - NMP;   2NT - NA;   PMM - Yes;   MIG - Yes These are the Hindus that overcame the partition tragedy pretty fast.
15	CAT - NMP;   2NT - NA;   PMM - No;   MIG - Yes These are the poor Hindus who were uprooted and took lots of time to recover. They are inclined away from Muslims. There number is small. But they exist, especially among Punjabis.
16	CAT - NMP;   2NT - NA;   PMM - No;   MIG - No These are the poor minorities of Pakistan, who reduced from 25% to 2.5%.

 n close analysis of all the aforementioned can be divided into six broader categories

(i)                 Those, who believed in two-nation theory & voted for it with their feet as they had the means to migrate to Pakistan and re-establish themselves over there earnestly or by deceit (there have been cases of Nawabs getting land in Pakistan in exchange for the land they never lost in India). These were ideologically convinced people. Ideology is a rich man’s affording. Poor masses do not afford any handicap in their daily battle for bread and butter. While, most of these people from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh voted with their feet, yet they have been left unassimilated in the land of their new homes & hopes.

(ii)        Those, who believed in two-nation theory & voted for it with their feet notwithstanding complete lack of means to even migrate to Pakistan.

(iii)             Those, who believed in two nation theory, voted for it in earnest, but were without means to vote with their feet or just were slothful.

(iv)              Those, who didn’t believe in two nation, but were forced to migrate to Pakistan (owing to riots and mayhem that followed).

(v)                Those, who did not believe in two-nation theory in earnest & decided to live in India by virtue of their intellectual ideals.

(vi)              Those, who were completely oblivious about two-nation theory or other such theories & were more bothered about attending to the need of earning the next meal.

It will be very difficult to ascertain today what might have been the proportion of these categories, but it is apparent that undivided India had more than two camps in practice. But one conclusion that can be drawn without fear of being wronged is that an overwhelming majority of categories which required uprooting people from the land of their forefathers would be an unhappy lot against such an action – in both the parts of undivided India.

It is a sorry state of affairs, but fact is that none of our leaders from both the sparring camps were visionary & astute politicians. Division of India was avoidable or at least more sensibly managed.

Pakis have failed to uncloak the two nation theory under whose wraps they have subsisted. Indeed, it is the utter failure of the two-nation theory within Pakistan that the Pakistani establishment wants to vindicate it in Kashmir. It is important for all of us Indians to fight Kashmiri radicalism with full force, while the State should take strictest measures that it needs, to take to secure the nation and its people. We the people of India, irrespective of religion have to fight this radicalism through concern towards our Kashmiri brethren and not by hating or alienating them. There has to be a segregated approach of Indian State (which has to secure India's integrity) and ours, the people of India. We should be concerned about Kashmiris.

Continuing in the same streak of analytical approach, we need to identify various categories of people in the South Asian subcontinent. The mistake our forefathers did in oversimplifying undivided India has to be strictly avoided. It is immensely critical to understand that citizens of undivided India including Kashmiris are not a uniform lot. There are much more than the three camps that are perceived – Kashmiris wanting to join India, or Pakistan or be an independent nation.

Category 1: Pakistanis, supporting terrorism under the garb of jihad & want India balkanized. One can safely assume Pak Army + ISI as one of them.

Important note: It is important to mention that we in India understand jihad as spiritual seeking, as in Sufi Islamic reevayat. In Islamic Pakistan, physical fight is a more prevalent comprehension of Jihad.

Proposed Action: Shun them, pour your iRage over them. iDecimate them. Let the Indian State/Army, do whatsoever it feels is needed to be done, to them. They are in skillful hands of Indian Generals.

Category 2: Pakistanis, who support their establishment (Pak Army + ISI), but are against terrorism.

Proposed Action: Don’t bother about them, they are simpletons, who do not know that this very Pak Army + ISI (duo) is the womb of terrorism. They are not worth your rage & time. Neglect them. I am unsure, though it seems that this class includes the Right Honest P. M. of Pakistan.

Category 3: Pakistanis, who do not support their army, are against terrorism, but can’t do anything, apparently – there is little room for thinking souls.

Proposed Action: Invoke them, support them, they are sensible people. They need our support to fight military hegemony within their own society.

Category 4: Kashmiris, who prefer dying for global terrorism, then to live in India, because they believe in two-nation theory.

Proposed Action: Don’t worry about them, these ambitious and aggressive men/women will achieve their former goal with provocation from Pakistani deep state & terrorist outfits and with good help & support of Indian security forces.

Category 5: Kashmiris, who are secular & do not believe in two-nation theory, but are sick & tired of Army subjugation in Kashmir.

Proposed Action: The army should be taken out of Kashmir at earliest possible, but on sensible opportunity. Constant presence of Army has reduced the value, and authority of Army (hence, stone pelting). Build garrisons, around towns, and let army recede there. Bring them in only when needed. Each of their visit should mean business. Army should recoup both - respect & fear of Kashmiris.

To many others – propose them in your social media posts to migrate to other parts of India. Those already in India – please treat them with respect and compassion. They are our compatriots. We should listen to them, help & support them. And demand respect and honour from them for India in return. And if they don’t do it, give them time. Pushing & pressurizing them will only alienate them further defeating us in our goals.

Remember, ideology plays itself out only across decades. Smaller frames of time - measured in events and seconds seem unimportant in the larger scheme of things. Don’t do this mistake! Like in voting one vote seems to matter not, but when millions vote, they decide who governs them & through this process the history of their nations and compatriots. Great achievements are made from small events that are done rightly!

The power of this vote is with us – Indians. We got to vote right by taking right & compassionate actions instead of ‘putting our own Kashmiri brethren in their right place’. Every act of compassion will be our vote in an Indian Kashmir 5 decades from now.

Category 6: Kashmiris, who believe in two nation theory, but are enjoying the perks of Indian citizenship, living and working in Kashmir (Indian) but are double-faced.

Proposed Action: Don’t worry about them, they are pragmatic souls, they will always sit on the side of the mighty subsequently, which will be India. Don’t waste time on them. They are as slippery to hold and as dangerous to eyes, as soap. They can harm their own brethren for their benefit. Keep them away. We have just to learn to live with them & hope they win green card lotteries and migrate west.

Category 7: Kashmiris, who believe in two nation theory in earnest and are living in Kashmir.

Proposed Action: Propose a VRS (voluntary retirement scheme from India) – sensible amount of money be paid to them to migrate to Pakistan/PoK. The amount per family should be kept on increasing till it reaches levels that makes many think. This will be an interesting exercise as it will

(a) showcase how attractive Pakistan is as a migration hotspot. At least it will make it apparent to the world the threshold below which no one migrates to Pakistan;

(b) improve the lot of those two-nation theorists in Kashmir, who decide to migrate with money and be Indian Nawabs in Pakistan;

(c) Reduce the population of Jehadi-minded separatists in Kashmir;

(d) And really get us all to know, how genuine is Pakistan in its love of Kashmiris;

(e) I suspect some might latch on to the scheme. And do not be afraid of payment, it is worth it. We lose much more in security, peace and non-development of Kashmir. Following the VRS Integrate Kashmir fully and completely into India with those left over;

Importantly, for few rubble-rousing, simpleton compatriots of mine, available in ppm (parts per million) in India like any other country - Muslims in rest of India have as much to do with Kashmiris, as I have to do with Martians. Let’s ensure we are not only - one nation, one people; but over that - a smart one. Smartness in current situation means distinguishing a rotten apple from a good one and not oversimplifying camps of people in view of situation in Kashmir, post amendment of Article 370 & 35A of Indian Constitution.